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Should NASCAR Slow Those Nationwide Toyotas Down?
4/24/08: SOZ Studios, MI - By Dennis Michelsen "DMIC" (RaceTalkRadio.com)
This season we are facing the NASCAR version of the old chicken and the egg story. Does Toyota have an advantage or is Gibbs Racing just dominant this year? There is no doubt some of the success is due to a team being on the top of their game with one of the most dominant drivers in the business having his best season ever. But has Toyota gained an advantage that made the former even playing field uneven? Let's take a look at the stats from a few different angles.
Gibbs Last Year Versus This Year
Joe Gibbs Racing has always had a great Busch Series program! But last season Gibbs only posted three wins in the entire season. This year Gibbs Racing has posted five wins and nine top five finishes in the first nine events. The driver lineup has changed this season so any direct comparison is not as valid as it could be. Kyle Busch has three of the wins and he raced for Hendrick Motorsports in 2007. Tony Stewart has two wins and he split his time in 2007 between Gibbs and Kevin Harvick. Denny Hamlin is the only driver that did race for Gibbs Racing last season and only has two rides in their cars this year. Yes Gibbs Racing has been much improved since the switch to Toyotas but it might be just the drivers that are in those cars.
Total Toyota Performance
Last season the only teams running Toyotas were not perennial winners in the Busch Series. Adding a team like Gibbs Racing to your stable will definitely improve your chances of winning because their drivers know how to win races! But last year Toyota only had two wins all season. This year they have won five of the first nine races. The argument might be made that Kyle Busch might be able to win even if he was driving a Hudson Hornet! Kyle did post a runner up finish when racing for Braun Racing earlier this year. So once again it is tough to figure out how much of the improvement is due to the brand having an advantage over the Chevys, Dodges, and Fords. The improvement might be just because a championship team such as Gibbs Racing was added to the fold.
Lucky Dog 2007 Versus 2008
Maybe the best driver to use for the comparison from last year to this year is David Reutimann of Michael Waltrip Racing. Last season Reutimann scored his first career Busch Series win at Memphis Motorsports Park. He posted five top five finishes and twelve top tens over 35 races and finished a distant second in points. This year David Reutimann has posted two top fives and five top tens already but is fourth in points. While fans might look at his fourth place in points and think that proves that his season is worse, we need to look at the details a bit closer. Last year David Reutimann scored a grand total of 4187 points in 35 races. If we project this year's points out to 35 races Reutimann is on the pace to score 4647 points this season. His top five and top ten finishes would also project much higher than last season. Based on Reutimann's numbers it is clear that 2008 has been a better season so far than last year. But how much of that is due to simply variance from one year to the next is impossible to tell.
Braun Showing More Braun?
Braun Racing is another team that raced Toyotas in 2007 and 2008. Jason Leffler's season is better in average finishing position so far in 2008 but just barely. But last season Leffler posted two top tens in the first nine races compared to none this year. He has only led one lap all season versus 40 at this time last year. Braun drivers have posted 2 top fives and eight top tens this season. Last year their drivers posted 13 top tens for the whole season. Once again since the drivers have been different from one year to the next the comparisons are not based on the same set of variables making any direct comparison questionable.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that the Toyota brand's performance has seen a sharp increase this season! How much of that is due to a better team being involved with the program is hard to quantify. Do the Toyotas have an unfair advantage in this day and age of even competition? Based on the statistical evidence it is inconclusive. But the appearance of an advantage is something NASCAR needs to address by more frequent testing of engines after Nationwide Series races. This information needs to be made public in easy to understand reports. If Toyota has a horsepower advantage NASCAR needs to make sure the playing field remains even for the rest of the 2008 season.
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