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NASCAR by the Numbers at the Break
7/18/08: SOZ Studios, MI - By Dennis Michelsen "DMIC" (RaceTalkRadio.com)
Lori Munro, my co-host on our Monday night show Doin' Donuts, likes to make fun of my statistical addiction. We will be talking about some issue in NASCAR racing and I will know that 67% of the time driver X has finished in the top 15 when racing on intermediate tracks. It drives her nuts! But NASCAR is made for number junkies like me and as the NASCAR Sprint Cup series takes its last week off I figured I would get into the numbers to see if we can predict the future from the past.
More 30th or Worse Than Top 5s
Making the Chase for the Championship is more about consistency rather than top performances. Last season the 12th and final qualifier for the playoffs only had two top five finishes in those first 26 races. Six drivers had more top five finishes than Clint Bowyer but were less consistent and missed the Chase. Among the drivers currently in the Chase Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne both have more finishes 30th or worse than top fives so far this season. All five of Kenseth's 30th or worse finishes took place in the first ten races of the season. Three of the four poor efforts for Kahne came in the last seven races.
Conclusion- If you want to make an educated guess which driver currently in the Chase will miss the Chase Kasey Kahne is a good bet. His inconsistency will overshadow his strong runs and the recent poor performances raise the red flag. Just like Dale Earnhardt Jr last season, Kahne could end up with more top fives than one or two of the Chase qualifiers but his poor races will doom him to also ran status.
Battle of the Big Four
Each and every season the top four teams in NASCAR hog the high percentage of the wins and top five finishes. This has always been and probably always will be the way of the world of NASCAR. The only difference is that nowadays the top four teams represent a total of fifteen drivers. This year there is little doubt that the Big Four of NASCAR in no particular order are Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, Roush-Fenway Racing, and Richard Childress Racing. Thirteen of the top fifteen teams in points are member of the Big Four. Seventy-four of the possible ninety-five top five finishes this season have been posted by the Big Four teams! (78%) Last year for the complete season those same four teams accounted for 133 of a possible 180 top five finishes. (74%) Those same teams have also earned 18% of the possible 30th or worse finishes too.
Conclusion-The Big Four teams have always dominated this sport. Grabbing 78% of the possible top five finishes shows that despite NASCAR's goal of evening the competition, the big boys will always dominate! It will be interesting to see if the share of top fives goes up or down as the Car of Tomorrow design goes along.
Difference One Driver Can Make
The racing season is just barely past the halfway mark but the statistics give a crazy example of just how important one driver change at a team can be on the team's stats. Last season Joe Gibbs Racing was third among the Big Four in total number of top five finishes. Certainly that makes sense since they only have three teams while Roush-Fenway has five and Hendrick Motorsports has four. But last season despite having one less team Hendrick led the league with 57 top five finishes to 34 for Roush-Fenway! This season the switch of just one driver at Joe Gibbs Racing has led to a sudden explosion in statistical improvement. JGR drivers have three more top five finishes than either Roush-Fenway or Hendrick despite having less starts!
Conclusion-If you were still a non-believer in jumping on the Kyle Busch bandwagon the stats above should change your mind! Many of the so-called experts questioned why JGR would leave Chevy for Toyota but the results have proven they made the right call! The even smarter move was hiring Kyle Busch!
Strangely Inconsistent
Despite posting a great number of top fives Roush-Fenway Racing also posted an incredible amount of finishes 30th or worse. (18 30th or worse versus 20 top fives) Last season they were the only team in the Big Four to post more finishes 30th or worse than top fives! (43 30th or worse versus 34 top fives) Tracking that percentage between the two is the best measure of whether a team has improved or fallen back over the past year. Joe Gibbs Racing was third in this percentage last season and this year they have the lowest among the Big Four at 39%. Hendrick Motorsports has the biggest rise in this percentage while Roush-Fenway and Richard Childress Racing have both lowered their percentage this season. Driver changes at Hendrick and JGR are the biggest factors if you dig through the stats while Roush-Fenway has seen maturity and better finishes from David Ragan which has helped their percentage decrease.
Conclusion-If you track a drivers poor finishes (30th or worse) versus his great finishes (top fives) you can get a feel for that driver's performance from year to year. As most drivers shed those rookie tendencies their percentage tends to drop except in those off years where bad luck gangs up on them! If you look at the Big Four in detail there is always one driver underachieving in any given year.
NASCAR by the Numbers
While NASCAR has gone to great lengths to bring fans more obscure statistics with the addition of loop data, the old fashioned statistics are still the best benchmarks. Although I am fascinated by the addition of the loop data letting us know how many green flag passes after relieving him or herself in their driving suit! Ever since there was a NASCAR there have been numbers to analyze. Comparing data from one era to the next is impossible due to all the changes in the sport. But comparing data on drivers from one year to the next can reveal some hidden gems explaining why Driver X is struggling while Driver Z is not. NASCAR lends itself to number analysis better than any other sport!
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